For NBA scorers, 20 points per game is a solid baseline, but it’s right around 25 per night that superstars separate themselves from the pack. Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive confirmed to USA Today’s Sam Amick what everyone and their mother already knew. Back in September, Stephen Curry insisted to ESPN’s Darren Rovell that he and the Golden State Warriors’ holdovers won’t have to give up anything to get the best out of Kevin Durant: Anthony Davis has flirted with the 25-points-per-game mark the past two seasons. In 2014-15, he finished with an average of 24.4. Last year, he tacked on 24.3 for the New Orleans Pelicans. How will Kevin Durant so much as sniff 25 points per game, let alone reach his career average of 27.4, while playing on a ridiculously loaded Golden State Warriors squad? Paul George would’ve been forgiven had he taken a step back on the court last season. He’d missed most of 2014-15 after breaking his leg during a Team USA scrimmage and returned to an Indiana Pacers squad in transition from big, bruising conference finalist to run-and-gun Eastern threat. New Houston Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni joked that James Harden will be the team’s “'points guard' because he’s going to score some points,” per ESPN’s Calvin Watkins. LeBron James has averaged fewer than 25 points per game in a season just once: 2003-04...when he was a rookie. Since returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2014, he’s scored 25.3 points during each of his two seasons—the second-lowest marks of his illustrious career. Damian Lillard figures to have the ball in his hands less this season but could see his scoring numbers skyrocket anyway. The Portland Trail Blazers plan to give C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe and free-agent signing Evan Turner greater command of the offense while Lillard works to get himself into scoring position off of screens, pindowns, curls and the like. Russell Westbrook has emerged as a chic MVP pick across the NBA, and for good reason. With Kevin Durant gone, he’ll have to be all for the Oklahoma City Thunder, from point man to emotional leader and everything in between. Last season, Drew Hanlen, trainer to a slew of young NBA stars, told Bleacher Report that his client Andrew Wiggins would be a 25-points-per-game scorer in the league once he became a consistent perimeter shooter.
Last season, 20 players topped the 20-point mark on a nightly basis, but only six—Stephen Curry, James Harden, Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James and Damian Lillard—went for 25.
Changing circumstances around the league could dictate a spike in top-shelf scoring around the Association this year. For example, the loss of reliable point-producers in Oklahoma City and New Orleans should open up opportunities for incumbent stars to step up in a big way. Some among the league’s next generation of studs are poised to break through, and it's always possible that a new face will come out of nowhere to tear up opposing defenses.
At this point, these 10 guys, listed in alphabetical order, look like near locks to crack the Quarter Club in 2016-17, based on individual scoring ability and the roles they’ll play for their respective squads this season.
Despite that discord, Cousins went out and averaged a career-best 26.9 points on 20.5 shots per game last season. This time around, he’ll be working under the auspices of Dave Joerger in an offense that he seems to be fond of.
“I love it. I love it. I love it,” Cousins told the Sacramento Bee’s Jason Jones.
If Joerger’s attack generates cleaner looks for Boogie, all the better; he has yet to hit more than 50 percent of his shots as a pro. Cousins may not be so lucky this season, given Sacramento’s sordid situation at point guard, yet another 25-points-per-game campaign should be well within his reach.
Were he to sniff that dividing line in 2016-17, Cousins could become the first traditional center to challenge for the scoring title since Shaquille O’Neal paced the Association in 1999-2000.
In broad strokes, Curry was right. The Warriors have already established a highly effective style of play, one that’s yielded an NBA title and 140 regular-season wins during head coach Steve Kerr's first two years in charge. Durant should slip seamlessly into that fast-paced, pass-happy, three-point-heavy framework.
But Durant isn’t Harrison Barnes, the player whose place he essentially usurped. Golden State won’t be getting nearly what it should out of its prize free-agent catch if Durant simply settles for the 9.6 shots per game and minimal on-ball duties that came with Barnes’ old role.
For Durant to be a next-level difference-maker in Golden State, he’ll need something closer to the 19.1 shots and 30.5 percent usage percentage he’s averaged over his nine previous NBA seasons. Curry won’t be the only one who has to sacrifice then, but as the reigning scoring champion (30.1 points per game) and the Warriors’ leader in usage and assists, he may be the first.
Still, getting to 25 points per game shouldn’t be a stretch for Curry, even if he is regularly rested for chunks of the fourth quarter again. He may surrender some of the 30.1 points on 20.2 shots he averaged last season, but with Durant around, the looks he gets should be cleaner and yield plenty of points.
To his credit, Davis intends to do much more than that in 2016-17, making a concerted effort during the preseason to be more of a leader for New Orleans both on and off the court.
“He has taken on more of a verbal leadership role already,” head coach Alvin Gentry told Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding. "The guys respect him, and I think the great thing about him is that he respects his teammates. He wants to be one of the guys, but I think he has realized that: 'I'm one of the guys, but I'm the leader. So there are certain things I've got to step up and do.'"
First and foremost to the Pelicans’ postseason hopes: put the ball in the basket.
With his size, length, athleticism and burgeoning skill set, Davis should do plenty of that, especially while he awaits the return of New Orleans’ other core players.
He’ll get his touches and his shots because it’s in Golden State’s best interest for him to do so. Durant is already up to 15.0 points on 10.0 shots per game in 23.1 preseason minutes. So, assuming he creeps closer to his career average of 19.1 shots, cracking 25 points a night shouldn’t be a problem. As NBA.com’s John Schuhmann noted, the Warriors can trust Durant to take matters into his own hands when it comes to scoring:
If he and Curry combine for 50 or more points per game, they’d hardly be the first duo, championship-caliber or otherwise, to pull that trick in the NBA. An informal crawl through Basketball Reference revealed at least 20 separate instances of teammates each topping the 25-point mark over the same campaign. No fewer than nine of those pairings made it to the Finals.
Durant and Curry clearly have the scoring capacity and the squad around them to be the 10th.
This, on a team that finished 17th in points last season with 102.2 per game. George expects that number to skyrocket in 2016-17, with Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young ready to turbocharge new head coach Nate McMillan’s go-go approach.
“We’ve been so used to a set or calling of plays and now we’re getting that freedom,” George said, per the Indianapolis Star’s Nate Taylor. “I think that’s going to take some time, but once we get it, we could easily be a 115-point team a night.”
Now that George is on a fast-paced roster that’s been entirely retooled around his talents, he should get as good a crack as ever at the 25-points-per-game plateau.
Harden’s role within Houston’s offense will only expand in 2016-17, as D’Antoni explained:
"He's more or less responsible giving rhythm to the team, that's what a point guard does. He's going to be on the ball and he's going to be distributing the ball and it will take some adjusting. He's got a lot more responsibilities as a point guard. A play-caller, a good basketball mind, he's already telling guys we can do this, we can do that."
What Harden will be able to do most is score whenever he wants.
And with the Rockets poised to push the pace under D’Antoni, there will be no shortage of buckets for Harden (or his teammates) to rack up.
James doesn’t look like he’s going to break down just yet. And if there are any concerns about his longevity, Cleveland can always turn to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to step up as scorers.
Until then, look for James to finish among the league’s elite point-producers for the umpteenth year running.
Portland should be stoked, too.
Lillard dropped a career-best 25.1 points per game last season while playing more of a hybrid role next to McCollum, another 20-point-per-game scorer. Another shift in that direction could make Lillard even more lethal for a young Blazers team looking to build off its serendipitous second-round playoff run.
It’s a role with which Westbrook is already familiar. Two seasons ago, he led the league at 28.1 points per game, while Durant fought through a troublesome foot fracture. Once KD was out for good in mid-February 2014, Westbrook upped the ante to 31.3 points per night during his failed attempt to will OKC into the playoffs.
The struggle will be even more real this season, with Durant now wearing Golden State’s threads. Westbrook will be the Thunder’s sun and stars from the jump, but if he had his druthers, he might play in a more egalitarian offense like the ones OKC has seen in Europe.
"Their offenses are 10 times better than NBA offense just because they move around a lot,” Westbrook said, per the Norman Transcript’s Fred Katz. “A lot of movement and not as much talent so they have to do different things to be able to score the basketball."
The Thunder don’t need quite as much trickery to generate scoring chances, with an elite attacker like Westbrook on the payroll. For better or worse, he’ll touch the ball every trip down the floor and may well wind up with his second scoring title as a result.
Lo and behold, Wiggins spent much of his summer launching jumpers to fashion himself into a reliable long-range threat.
The early returns have been spotty, at best. Through two preseason games, Wiggins has hit just 6-of-24 (25 percent) from the field and attempted just a single three-pointer.
Not that anyone should put much stock in exhibition results, especially in Wiggins’ case.
Like all the other Timberwolves, he’s adjusting to new head coach Tom Thibodeau and all the changes that accompany that transition. Once Wiggins finds his comfort zone under the new regime, though, he’ll get to show his true colors as the budding stud for which he’s been pegged since his high school days.
Playing with unselfish teammates should help to elevates Wiggins' profile as a scorer, as well. Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns are both precise passers, capable of setting Wiggins up for easy opportunities inside and out.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.
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